Japan in the Global Economy: Utsubyo kara no Dassyutsu

Tudor Investment Corporation

Managing Director
Robert Dugger

Director of Global Economics
Angel Ubide

2007年7月

本文

Japan has successfully exited the emergency situation of the last decade and is enjoying steady growth. It is beyond recovery. It is on a stable growth path that will be sustainable if Japan can continue to focus on what is best for long-term success in a global economy.

Japan's growth challenges are structural and have been the focus of several past governments. The challenges are (1) restructuring the private sector to enable Japan to do well in a globalized economy; (2) rebalancing the public sector's spending priorities to attain long-term sustainability; and (3) assuring a strong productive future workforce. In our 2004 paper, "Structural Traps, Politics, and Monetary Policy", we explained how Japan in the 1990s was caught in a trap of old-Japan political priorities and how structural reforms were the key to escaping.1）

Japan is enjoying one of its longest expansions on record - lasting about 5 years, just shy of the record long expansion in 1965-1970. Labor markets are the tightest in the past fifteen years, and inflation has gone from negative to positive, from about -1.5 percent in mid 2002 to close to 1 percent in late 2006. Land prices are increasing again. However, some commentators argue that Japan is still in danger of deflation. These commentators, though technically correct - current headline inflation rate is flat year on year - are missing an important point. The deflationary years 1995 - 2005 were the result of a clear insufficiency of demand and probably entrenched deflationary expectations. That was a dangerous situation, and an extraordinary monetary expansion was warranted.