The Effectiveness of the Kyoto-Type International Framework for Global Warming Countermeasures

ABSTRACT

The Kyoto Protocol was formally put into effect with Russia's ratification on February 16, 2005. As a result, the Annex I countries, including Japan, the EU nations, and Canada, have become officially obligated to achieve the reduction goals that the protocol sets forth. Yet, because it has been put into effect without the participation of the US and Australia, the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gasses, doubts remain as to whether the protocol can effectively bring about stabilization in the climate. The withdrawal of the US and Australia has not only significantly narrowed the area of countries and regions committed to reduction initiatives but will also lead to "carbon leakage," where greenhouse gas emissions reductions will simply be offset by increased emissions in countries and regions that have no reduction goals.

Meanwhile, with the Kyoto Protocol now in effect, many are now discussing the type of international framework for global warming countermeasures that will be established post-Kyoto, or after 2013. If the debate on the global warming framework continues to be lead by the EU, as has been the case until now, efforts will continue without the participation of the US and the world's developing nations and reduction initiatives will be limited to an extremely small number of countries; e.g. Japan, the EU nations, and Canada, or those that are already included in Annex I. Carbon leakage will be serious in countries like China, where high economic growth is expected in the coming years, dealing great setbacks to the effectiveness of reduction efforts.

For this initial obligation period, it is necessary to expand the network of international approval for Kyoto mechanisms such as CDM's. After 2013, more important than adhering to absolute reduction figures will be to establish a framework by which the US and China can abide. Reduction efforts without the US and China will mean heavy losses in reduction efficiency. On the other hand, efforts with their involvement will lead to real and effective emissions reduction.