An Assessment of Future Healthcare Costs and the Integration of the Insurance System

ABSTRACT

Healthcare expenditure estimation was made for the expenses of medical care and long-term care for the period FY2000 to FY2050, based on cases where the increase rate of real wages is 0%, 1%, 1.5% and 2%. As a result, up until FY2010, since the over-65 population increases and the supply framework for home-care services advances, the increase rate of healthcare expenditure exceeds that of real wages. During the period FY2010 to FY2025, the gap close somewhat.

Of the 34 trillion yen healthcare expenditure in FY2000, 11.5 trillion yen is government expenditure, which is converted to a consumption tax rate equivalent to 4.59%. Making the future estimation of government burden converted to a consumption tax rate under the current system, with 1% increase in real wages, the rate for FY2010, FY2025 and FY2050 will be 6.14%, 7.05% and 6.60% respectively.

If the increase of per capita burden is kept at the same ratio between generations, the per capita burden of healthcare expenditure for elderly people aged 70 and older increases from 24,080 yen in FY2000 to 32,703 yen in FY2010, 44,160 yen in FY2025, and 62,841 yen in FY2050.

In this way, the healthcare expenditure increase for both government and individuals means that further efforts are required to curtail it. In order to rebuild the national consensus concerning healthcare insurance reform, it is necessary to provide mechanisms which improve the level of satisfaction in line with the increased burden, and make the burden between generations more equitable. I would like to propose the following three suggestions.

Introduction

Conclusion