The Significance of Ozawa's Resignation as Leader of the Democratic Party of Japan
November 05, 2007 (Monday)
On November 4, Ichiro Ozawa suddenly announced his intent to resign as head of the Democratic Party of Japan. This was an unexpected development for many interested parties, and has sent a shockwave through political as well as other circles.
Does Ozawa's announcement really mean that he will retire as head of the party? If not, what will be his next move? I would like to share some thoughts on the impact that this development will have on politics and international relations.
The catalyst for Ozawa's announcement was the second meeting between Ozawa and Prime Minister Fukuda as party heads on November 2. Ozawa received a proposal from Prime Minister Fukuda to form a grand coalition, and brought this proposal back to DPJ headquarters. However, it was almost uniformly opposed by DPJ leadership. In the press conference where he announced his resignation, Ozawa made it clear that he took this heavy opposition from party leaders as a vote of no-confidence.
Many points surrounding the resignation remain unclear, such as which side actually called for the meeting between the party heads, or who actually proposed the grand coalition. In any event, it is apparent that Ozawa held a strong interest in the idea of a grand coalition. After claiming a resounding victory in the Upper House elections in July, the DPJ began forming plans to quickly force the Fukuda administration into a snap election in the Lower House, and after securing victory in this election, to bring about a change in government. It appears, however, that Ozawa was not optimistic about the DJP's chances in such an election. Given this situation, Ozawa's strategy was likely to take advantage of the currently divided Diet to form a grand coalition, assume control of half of the administration, and after obtaining a degree of experience and approval, pursue a complete transfer of power.
This idea, however, existed only in Ozawa's head. DPJ leadership, which was completely taken by surprise, was not psychologically prepared to understand such a concept. It seems that party leaders were aiming to supplant the LDP by using the power garnered from the Upper House victory as a springboard towards victory in Lower House elections. They therefore collectively rejected Ozawa's proposal for the grand coalition. Ozawa interpreted this as a vote of no-confidence and immediately announced his resignation, once again showing his unique penchant for arbitrary action.
Ozawa has a history of bringing about various changes in the political arena with his unique and strategic thinking. There is speculation that he will take a group of supporters with him and form a new party after resigning, and then pursue a coalition with the LDP. If he were successful in creating such a group with 17 members in the Upper House, it would have the same effect as the creation of a grand coalition, and Ozawa could secure a powerful voice within this new political power structure.
While the political fallout remains unclear in certain areas, it is a fact that Ozawa's resignation has significant implications for political policy and international relations.
The DPJ has proposed policy which differs greatly from the LDP's in important areas that are directly connected with the everyday lives of citizens such as the pension system, child-raising and agriculture. This policy could have been realized had the grand coalition been formed. If Ozawa does indeed resign, however, the prospects for this become even more uncertain, and the same could be said for international relations.
The LDP and Japanese government have continued supplying fuel to ships engaged in maritime monitoring activities in the Indian Ocean since the days of the Koizumi administration. This operation has been widely praised by international society, but because of Ozawa's strong opposition since the Upper House elections it was discontinued after legal expiration at the end of October. The Japanese government and LDP have been looking for ways to continue the fuel supply program by establishing a new law. It is said that Prime Minister Fukuda accepted Ozawa's proposal at the November 2 meeting regarding this issue, and in conjunction proposed the concept of the grand coalition. Ozawa's proposal was to allow the self-defense forces to engage in overseas activity only if recognized by a UN resolution. This proposal, therefore, holds that the fuel supply operation, which originated in a US-Japan bilateral agreement and not a UN resolution, should be discontinued, but with UN approval the self-defense forces could, for example, engage in military activity in Afghanistan. This Ozawa proposal, in particular the part related to military activity in Afghanistan, has been met with a strong backlash among the Democratic, Socialist and Community Parties. Moreover, it is becoming increasingly clear that the discontinuation of the fuel supply operation is without majority support or understanding from Japanese citizens. If Ozawa resigns as party leader, how will the remaining DPJ handle this issue? If Ozawa mobilizes a new political power outside of the DPJ, how will this issue be resolved? In any event, there is no denying the fact that the situation has only become more uncertain.
International opinion has shown a degree of understanding towards these movements in Japan as circumstances of the DPJ, but there has been no attempt to hide concern and disappointment over Japan's withdrawal from the international society and its war against terrorism. It is my fervent wish that Japan will restore functionality to its policymaking as soon as possible, and will create a system that can quickly produce necessary policy to contribute appropriately to international society while also improving the lives of its citizens.