Concerning the Results of the Upper House Elections

July 31, 2007 (Tuesday)

The Upper House elections held on July 29th ended in a drubbing of the Liberal Democratic Party (37 seats) and Komeito (9 seats) ruling parties and a great leap forward for the Democratic Party (60 seats). The ruling parties ended up with a total of 105 seats while the opposition parties landed a total of 137 seats, representing a loss of majority for the ruling parties and an ascendancy to control of the Diet by the opposition parties. This result means that managing the Diet has become an extremely complicated affair, with the ruling parties commanding a decisive majority in the Lower House and the opposition parties dictating the Upper House. Even when a bill is passed by the Lower House if it is rejected by the Upper House it will not be enacted. Sending the bill back to the Lower House to be passed will take time, and either way it will promote a sense of uncertainty.

The LDP’s hammering and DPJ’s runaway victory is understood as voter’s criticism of the Abe Administration’s party. As mentioned in the previous column, the Abe Administration has steadily endeavored to fulfill its initial campaign pledges. The electorate, however, passed strict judgment on the wave of ungainly scandals and gaffes by the cabinet such as Agriculture Minister Matsuoka’s suicide involving allegations of money politics, allegations of doctored reports concerning administrative expenses by Matsuoka’s successor, Agriculture Minister Akagi, inappropriate comments by Defense Minister Kyuma that can be interpreted as accepting the atomic bomb, and unfortunate remarks by Minister of Foreign Affairs Aso that ignore the rights of those who suffer from Alzheimer’s disease. In addition, while the causes leading to 50 million pension records disappearing into thin air date back many years and thus are not the responsibility of the Abe Administration, it cannot be denied that the Administration’s response to the problem was late and poorly executed. The diligent efforts of the Abe Administration afterwards were not recognized by the electorate. While criticism of Prime Minister Abe and his responsibility for the drubbing smolders even among his ruling party, the fact that there is no viable alternative candidate and the energy to generate excitement over a new candidate cannot be mustered seems to have led Prime Minister Abe to quickly express his resolve to remain in office.

That the DPJ and other opposition parties occupy a majority in the Upper House signals an increased probability that the DPJ’s agenda will be reflected more in future policymaking. The issue for citizens, however, is that there is no question that the DPJ’s policy is not always consistent or realistic. In its opposition platform, the DPJ emphasizes aid for the lower income class and agriculture, integration of all of the various pension systems, and etc. Yet, these plans lack in substance and are not realistic.

What is unfortunate for citizens is the fact that the DPJ’s gain is not a result of hope for new policies replacing the LDP’s that can be trusted. Rather, it is mainly the outcome of the Abe Administration’s “blunders”. Put differently, citizens lost hope in the current cabinet and had no choice but to aimlessly cast a vote in protest. Approval ratings of the Abe Administration have dipped into the low 20% range according to various surveys, and there is no telling will happen to the confused political landscape in the future. Prime Minister Abe, however, has declared his resolve to remain in office, and as such he should take criticism of his cabinet to heart. Instead of filling the cabinet with his close friends as in the past, he should genuinely appoint effective leaders and devote his energy into following through on the original intentions of his “grand politics”.