Significance of the 2007 Upper House Elections
July 18, 2007 (Wednesday)
The Upper House elections will be held on July 29th of this year. Upper House legislators serve six year terms, and half of the seats go up for election once every three years. This year marks an election year in this three-year cycle. There are 242 seats in the Upper House, and 121 of these will be elected.
Of the 121 seats to be contested, the ruling parties currently hold 76 (64 LDP and 12 Komeito). The opposition parties, meanwhile, command a total of 43 seats (32 Democratic Party and a combined 11 from other parties). Of the 121 seats not up for election, the ruling party holds a total of 57 (46 LDP, 11 Komeito), while the opposition party boasts 64 (49 Democratic Party, 15 other).
The opposition parties are waging a diligent election battle with the goal of taking a majority in this year’s Upper House elections. Democratic Party leader Ozawa has staked his political life on the election, announcing that he will retire from politics if they don’t claim a majority. The reason for this is if the opposition parties can claim a majority they will also garner the right to revise bills submitted by the Lower House, which is dominated by the ruling party coalition.
The LDP, riding the “Koizumi whirlwind”, was able to add a significant number of seats in the 2001 Upper House elections, but it is possible that this Koizumi effect will be diminished during this year’s elections. As such, securing an overall majority in the Upper House will be a tough task for the LDP, and in this regard, these elections are predicted to be a struggle for Prime Minister Abe.
The Abe Administration, as the first administration led by a prime minister born after WWII, has introduced bold strategies both in domestic affairs and in foreign policy since its inauguration. In terms of foreign policy, relations with China and Korea, which had soured under the Koizumi administration, have been improved. Defense capabilities have been strengthened even while the security alliance with the US has been made a cornerstone, and the administration has taken a basic position of promoting proactive foreign policy strategy. Improving relations with China and Korea, transforming the Defense Agency into a Ministry, rethinking the constitution and etc.: Prime Minister Abe has steadily advanced his plan, and continues to do so today. In terms of domestic affairs, the administration has focused on financial restructuring as it rides the winds of economic recovery, and the prospects for reaching a surplus in the primary balance are now looking brighter. With regards to education, with the revision of the Fundamental Law of Education and reform from the Education Revitalization Committee, the administration is steadily fulfilling its campaign promises.
On the flip side of these head-on efforts, various incidents have captured public attention and the Abe Administration’s approval ratings have taken a big hit. One such incident was Agriculture Minister Matsuoka’s suicide, which symbolizes the relationship between money with politics. Another is problem 50 million pension records disappearing into thin air. The succession of these and other serious issues have led to a dramatic decrease in the Abe Administration’s popularity. For the opposition parties, the perfect ammunition is suddenly at their disposal, and in particular the Democratic Party has strengthened its attack with these issues at the forefront.
The opposition parties have increased criticism concerning another issue: economic disparity. This criticism holds that social disparity has widened as a result of the Koizumi administration forcefully pushing its reforms. As I have written about before in this column, the essence of disparity is that it fluctuates in tune with economic movement, and in times of economic growth it tends to shrink. This criticism is therefore off the mark. Democratic Party leader Ozawa, however, continues his criticism of the LDP administration with assertions that are in fact in direct contradiction of his previous position.
How the electorate judges the effect of Abe Administration’s policies, and how it receives the opposition parties’ assertions and arguments will be revealed the July 29th election day.