100 Days of the Abe Administration (Inaugurated September 26, by the end of December will reach 100 days)

December 19 (Tuesday) 2006

At the time of inauguration I offered some comments in this column, and I'd like to follow with an assessment as the Abe Administration approaches the 100th day at the end of the year. The administration was established with strong expectations from the general public, and its approval rating was correspondingly high (63% according to the Asahi Shimbun, December 28 morning edition). In the succeeding two and a half months, however, the approval rating has fallen to 59% (Asahi Shimbun, December 12 morning edition).

One significant reason for this decline is the "return to the party" problem. A number of assembly members were expelled from the party (LDP) for opposing the Koizumi administration's proposal for privatizing the postal system, but then independently secured victories in the September upper house election. These assembly members were reinstated in the party after strong demands from top-ranking upper house representatives. The response from citizens, however, has been varied. It has not generally been viewed as an example of strong leadership from Prime Minister Abe, and has led to a drop in his approval ratings.

Approval ratings are an expression of general perception of how an administration is responding to the people's expectations, and as such are important indicators. However, they are also heavily influenced by how the media conveys the administration's performance. I would like to take this opportunity to offer some comments based on the fundamental facts.

The Abe administration has achieved remarkable results in terms of diplomacy in the first 100 days, and is in the process of setting the course for domestic policy.

Official visits to China and South Korea and summits with the corresponding leaders immediately after inauguration were diplomatic breakthroughs. Such summits were not accomplished by the Koizumi administration mired in the Yasukuni shrine issue. Prime Minster Abe, however, was able to pull the strings necessary to arrange visits to both China and South Korea in an extremely short of period of time. Furthermore, the nuclear experiment conducted by North Korea produced an unexpected bonus: a sense of solidarity has been achieved among Japan, China and South Korea in their collective concern over the experiment.

There has been success. However, to solidify these results as substantial new-age achievements in diplomacy and international strategy, the issue becomes how to strengthen Japan's strategic plan for diplomacy and systems for implementation, as well as how to establish practical relationships of mutual trust. In other words, the challenge is to solidify a real and substantial framework. The bill to turn the Defense Agency into a ministry (enacted on December 15) was a step in the right direction, but many issues remain, such as a functional strengthening of the National Security Council and the establishment of international partnerships and trust. In any event, the administrations first steps can be recognized as having a degree of diplomatic success.

With regards to domestic policy, the Abe administration was established on the platforms of education reform, constitutional revision, economic reform and the promotion of economic growth. The revision of the Fundamental Law of Education (enacted on December 15) was a significant first step in education reform. The revision of the Fundamental Law of Education has been a subject of contention in the Diet and among citizens alike. As a result of the "yarase" problem (staged supporters being placed at local town meetings to advocate revision), and the subsequent distrust of the administration after the issue was heavily covered by the media, there has been a tendency to lose sight of the real essence of the issue. The original Fundamental Law of Education was enacted in 1947, and served as a pillar for quality education. The issues that currently saddle the educational administration, however, are significantly greater, and the revision of the Fundamental Law of Education is a basic expression of necessary government action on a wide range of issues concerning university, early childhood, family and lifelong education, as well as patriotism. That the legal system, which has been described as the constitution of education, has been reorganized in such a fashion is a development that should be commended.

One of the major themes of the Abe Administration's platform for economic reform was to incorporate earmarked funds for road construction into the general budget. Eighty percent of the earmarked funds come from gasoline taxes, and Prime Minister Abe ordered an examination of the possibility to put these funds (including the gasoline taxes) into the general budget account at the Council of Economic and Fiscal Policy. It is regarded that this was the result of strong advice from Hiroko Ota, the economy minister. As a result of a strong backlash from both road construction lobbyists and those affiliated with the road construction industry, only unspecific statements were offered at the current Diet session. The matter was settled with a decision that the possibility of incorporating these funds into the general budget will be investigated. Formally speaking, this development can be recognized as having paved the road to tackle a problem that has for 50 years, since the road construction funding system was put into place, been untouchable. In substance, however, it is an ambiguous conclusion that has simply postponed the essence of the issue, and public opinion will likely be divided over the actual achievements of the reform.

The strongest characteristic of the Abe administration's economic strategy is the "rising tide" strategy, which gives priority to economic growth. In order to promote economic growth, a variety of policies have been initiated such as write-offs or tax systems to promote new technologies and the establishment of programs to promote innovation. In fact, the recent strong performance of companies has produced a significant increase in tax revenues, and 2006 revenues are expected to reach US$530 billion and substantially exceed initial predictions. This would make it possible to greatly reduce the issuance of government bonds and achieve a primary balance in government finances ahead of schedule. In this way, tangible clues are becoming visible in the rising tide strategy. Regardless of the favorable winds of economic growth that have followed the Koizumi administration, it can be said that the growth-centered policies emphasized by the Abe Administration are off to a strong start.

In summary, despite declining approval ratings in the administration's first 100 days, in reality the basic strategies proposed in the initial platform are being implemented. It is a fact that there is a difficult in conveying a clear message to the masses in the way that was done in the previous administration by the singular politician Koizumi and his inimitable leadership. That being said, the Abe administration has brought about a degree of accomplishment and should be recognized for this.

The issue at hand is whether or not the enforcement structures will adequately function to effectively bring about implementation of the administration's fundamental strategies, and real achievement. One example is the advisory structure of the office of the prime minister. A number of advisors head various fields related to economic vitalization, and as politicians there is a necessity for each of them to produce results. Collective and consistent promotion of the strategies will likely be a challenge. The Council of Economic and Fiscal Policy was originally designed to serve as a control tower for effective economic strategy, but realizing this will depend on whether or not the economy minister Hiroko Ota, who steers the Council, is guaranteed the strength and complete backing of Prime Minister Abe. In terms of diplomacy, whether or not the National Security Council (Japan's version), led by Advisor Yuriko Koike, can accumulate the strength to function with power equal to that of similar councils around the world and share classified information is also a great challenge.

I will be carefully monitoring future movements of the Abe Administration after the completion of the first 100 days.