The Abe Administration's Approach to New Challenges
September 29 (Friday) 2006
The announcement of the Abe Administration's Cabinet on September 26 has offered a look into how it is preparing to tackle various policy issues. Though it may be a bit premature, I would like to comment on the administration's efforts in the face of such challenges.
1. Strengthening the functional power of the prime minister's office
It has long been the intention of Prime Minister Abe to raise the functional power of the prime minister's office to the level of the White House, making it the hub of policy-making. The new Cabinet members give shape to this ambition. The prime minister assigned five Cabinet advisors in Yuriko Koike (national security), Takumi Nemoto (economic and fiscal policy), Kyoko Nakayama (North Korean abductions issue), Eriko Yamatani (education), and Hiroshige Seko (public relations). Each advisor was allowed one assistant, and tradition was defied when these positions were opened to the public and governmental officials were allowed to recruit their own staff. In doing so, the administration's policy-making power was enhanced.
Among the Cabinet advisors, Kyoko Nakayama (North Korean abductions issue) was a special advisor to the Koizumi Cabinet and won the trust of the general public through her earnest efforts towards the release of abduction victims and subsequent support of their living conditions back in Japan. Assigning Nakayama to spearhead the abductions issue shows a coordinated and determined resolve to tackle the problem. Takumi Nemoto (economic and fiscal policy), a personal friend of Prime Minister Abe, is now in position to offer comprehensive advice on the administration's goal of complete economic policy formation from the prime minister's office. Japan’s economic policy has hitherto been largely planned and administered by government ministries such as the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. This changed with the Koizumi Administration, which let the Council on Fiscal and Economic Policy act as the central economic command center. Abe looks to continue this trend by strengthening the functional power of his close circle of command.
The Blair Administration in England employs 22 advisors (including 12 senior advisors), and, with a few exceptions, nearly all economic policy is drafted by the advisors and subsequently directed to the government ministries by Blair. Similarly, a Cabinet advisor heads economic policy at the White House, and the Abe Administration is intent on establishing a position with comparable capacities. The focus of the Abe Administration's economic policy is on the formation of new growth strategies – such as creating a "society that allows for second chances" – and the key is to what extent Abe’s advisors can play a role in developing the multi-layered economic policies.
2. No growth, no fiscal restructuring
Under the basic platform of "without reform there can be no growth" the Koizumi Administration succeeded in carrying out reforms and creating conditions for economic growth. The Abe Administration's first priority, however, is with growth strategies. Economic growth, the basic line of reasoning goes, would facilitate structural economic reforms and fiscal restructuring.
This platform noticeably clashed with Tanizaki's push for tax increases up until the LDP party election. Under the Abe Administration, the issue of tax increases has been placed on the backburner in favor of promoting economic growth. This was evident when pro-growth Hidenao Nakagawa was placed at the core of the administration as Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party. Further, Tanizaki, the former Finance Minister who had stressed the necessity for a consumption tax increase, was ousted from his important position. So was Yosano, who had struggled as Minister of Economic and Fiscal Policy and Minister in Charge of Financial Affairs to strike a balance with the Ministry of Finance. He was replaced by Hiroko Ota, who represents the lone nonpolitician in the Cabinet and is a highlight of Abe's team. Ota played an integral role in the Koizumi Cabinet Office as assistant to the Economy and Finance Minister Takenaka. She left an impressive track record of climbing to the title of Director-General of Cabinet Office administration (as a nonpolitician) and directing the formation of economic strategy. Ota, widely recognized for her exceptional talent and character, will take the reins of the Council on Fiscal and Economic Policy and promote economic growth strategies.
To stimulate economic growth, both further utilization of IT and slashing taxes – and how they will make it easier for companies to invest and improve technology – are being emphasized. Some regard the decision to put off talks on tax increases as a calculated look towards the Upper House elections next summer.
3. Diplomatic strategies
Similar to his predecessor, the primary interest of Abe's diplomatic strategy is the further solidification of the bilateral alliance with the US. However, public interest is increasingly focused on how relations with China and Korea, which soured under the Koizumi Administration, will be improved. China, in particular, maintains that while Abe searches behind the scene for clues as to how improve relations, the first step is contingent upon Abe providing a guarantee that he will not visit the Yasukuni shrine.
Prime Minister Abe has taken an ambiguous position on the Yasukuni issue, refusing to clearly state his intentions as he insists that it is an internal (domestic) and private issue. Meanwhile, as China prepares for the 17th Communist Party Congress in 2007, diplomatic authorities are hesitant to begin mending fences absent a promise from Abe. It thus remains unclear at this stage whether or not there will be specific movements towards improving relations.
The key players in the Abe Administration's lineup have been announced, and the course they will pursue is gradually coming into focus. In light of this I have examined the preceding three points, and would like to offer additional comments as the story unfolds.