The Advent of the Abe Administration

September 27 (Wednesday) 2006

The Abe administration has emerged.

The ascent of Shinzo Abe to prime minister was prefaced by an election within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in which Shinzo Abe, Sadakazu Tanigaki and Taro Aso vied for the title of party president. Abe received 464 votes, compared to 136 and 102 for Aso and Tanigaki, respectively, to secure an overwhelming victory. Abe, who has just turned 52 and is the youngest post-war prime minister, officially became the 90th prime minister of Japan at an extraordinary session of the Diet on the 26th. Abe’s relative youth and earnest and charming personality have brought him popularity at home. He has long been regarded as the likely successor to the inimitable Junichiro Koizumi, and, in line with these expectations, was confirmed as prime minister and his administration formally established at the extraordinary session.

Shinzo Abe is the second son of Shintaro Abe. Shintaro Abe finished third in the LDP preliminary election for party president in 1982 following the resignation of Prime Minister Suzuki. He would later join Yasuhiro Nakasone’s cabinet as foreign minister, and in terms of public support was considered to be the frontrunner for prime minister. He ran against Noboru Takeshita and Kiichi Miyazawa, but closed-door discussions did not bear fruit and his fate was sealed when Nakasone decided to endorse Takeshita. Years later, Shintaro Abe was diagnosed with cancer and passed away. Shinzo Abe, who realized his father’s lofty aspirations at the young age of 52, is indeed a blue blooded political thoroughbred.

While Abe’s public support is high, this year’s election was somehow wanting in the way of excitement and enthusiasm. This is likely because Abe received unwavering support from Koizumi, and was effectively following the course that Koizumi had laid out for him.

As a result, while Abe’s party election platform did include some important issues, when it came to specific content it was noticeably lacking. Perhaps Abe wanted to avoid restricting himself with small details before assuming office. Now that he has become prime minister, public interest is focusing on what kind of specific policies Abe will pursue. The Abe administration is preparing to tackle fundamental issues such as constitutional revision and education reform, and also seems intent on raising the functional power of the prime minister’s office to the level of the White House in the US.

While these high-profile strategies garner attention, an excess of extremely important structural reforms are at issue and the focus should be on how actively and sincerely Abe’s administration will tackle these issues.

Consider social security reform. Annual pension, health care and nursing are all areas that demand fundamental restructuring in the emerging landscape of population decline. It will be interesting to see how much progress Prime Minister Abe, already rich in social security expertise, will actually bring about. There is also the issue of decentralization and the revival of regional vitality. In addition, as the average household saving rate structurally declines in an aging population, it is becoming necessary for Japan to attract high-quality and abundant foreign equity capital to maintain favorable investment conditions at home. Furthermore, one prominent theme in Abe’s election platform was the call to create a “society which allows for second chances” with regards to the problem of economic disparity. The fundamental solution to this problem, in fact, should lie in increased productivity and structural reforms. How Abe will pursue these structural reforms will therefore be a continuing subject of interest.

The substance of Abe’s administration has hitherto been an assembly of catch-phrases - attention should gradually focus on specific policies as they begin to take shape.