Expectations for the Third Koizumi Cabinet
November 02 (Wednesday) 2005
The third Koizumi Cabinet has been inaugurated. The new cabinet will aim to complete Prime Minister Koizumi's reforms, cementing the major victories in the general elections concerning his theme of privatizing the postal system and the related legislative bill that followed. Premised on Koizumi's stepping down in one year's time, the new cabinet has two important implications: the first is the pursuit full-fledged reforms during this last year, and the second continuing the path to reform while encouraging potential successors to compete within the cabinet in order to determine who is the most suitable for to carry these reforms forward.
The media has fingered Shinzo Abe, Sadakazu Tanigaki, Taro Aso, and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda as potential candidates to succeed Prime Minister Koizumi. In the new shuffling, Mr. Fukuda was left out of the cabinet, while Mr. Aso was promoted from internal affairs minister to foreign affairs minister. Mr. Tanigaki will continue as finance minister, and Mr. Abe -- who has no ministerial experience -- has been tapped to preside over the entirety of the government as chief cabinet secretary.
There are many expectations and challenges for each. Mr. Aso is known for occasionally making aggressive statements concerning the Yasukuni War Shrine problem and other issues, and how he will fulfill his new role concerning prominent issues, such as Japan-China relations and diplomacy in Asia, will be watched closely. Mr. Tanigaki's contribution to the cause of reform will likely be judged on how far and in what form he will be able to clean up government-run financial institutions. As for the nationally popular Mr. Abe, how well he can fulfill the administrative role of Chief Cabinet Secretary -- and how much valuable wisdom and experience he can learn during the process -- will decide how close he stands to becoming the next prime minister.
Heizou Takenaka will continue to shoulder the burden of state minister in charge of postal privatization, and has been reappointed internal affairs minister. One of the main pillars of invigorating the Koizumi reform plan is the reform of the civil service system, and what kind of executive ability Mr. Takenaka -- one of the strongest supporters of the Koizumi Cabinet -- will display to handle this troublesome issue will attract much attention.
One more key element is how the Koizumi Cabinet will stave off Japan's falling birthrate. Kuniko Inoguchi has been appointed to handle this issue. Though a renowned scholar of international politics, she is utterly inexperienced in both the issue of supporting childcare and in administrative tasks. How to tackle the national issue of declining birthrates and return a sense of confidence in society to a great number of people will no doubt be the measuring stick for her qualifications as a statesperson.
It can be said that, this time around, there were not many of Prime Minister Koizumi's trademark "surprises" in the new cabinet, but it is a pragmatically strong one. In a recent poll by Nihon Keizai Shimbun, 56 percent said they supported the new cabinet, with 49% responding that they approved of the new lineup.
How will this new cabinet pave the way toward more aggressive reforms, and what kinds of potential successors to the premiership will rise out of it? In the coming year, the nation will watch these developments closely with expectation and concern.