Escalating Environmental and Resources Constraints on the Sustainability of China's High-Growth Economy

Escalating Air Pollution and Water Problems

Previously, China's predicted total energy consumption for 2020 (oil equivalent conversion) was calculated at 1.7 billion tons. In 2004, the OECD's International Energy Agency (IEA) boosted that figure considerably to 2.072 billion tons, while the Chinese government predicted 2.52 billion tons.

Furthermore, in September 2005 the director of China's National Development and Reform Committee's Energy Research Center, Dadi Zhou, caused a stir when he announced China's “Outlook for Total Energy Consumption and Power Generation Capacity in 2020”. With much of China's energy supply reliant on coal-fired power generation, the report's prediction for coal consumption in the year 2020 was a staggering 3.1 billion tons (Chinese standard). Calculations from these figures indicate an import deficit of 1.6 billion tons (900 million tons in global-standard coal conversion). The report also predicted total coal-fired energy production for 2020 at 780 million kilowatts.

With predictions for coal consumption like these, the further exacerbation of air pollution, dust and soot, acid rain and other environmental problems is unavoidable. Without implementing development projects for coal gasification or other forms of revolutionary clean coal technology, sustainable high-growth for the Chinese economy is impossible.

China's water resources problem is also gaining urgency. The per capita water resource level in China is less than one third of the global average, and water distribution is also extremely imbalanced, with water shortages occurring in all cities across the country. In industrial locations as well, not only energy but also water issues are becoming inhibiting factors to growth. China's water resources are faced with four major issues, combining a water shortage on the one hand with frequent floods on the other, as well as a combination of heavily polluted water and ecological deterioration.

Dry seasons are already hastening river dry-up for the Yellow River, and due to high ammonia levels almost no animals can survive in its waters. Indeed, it is growing more and more difficult to call it an actual river.

There are also issues with the Yangtze River. As the world's third longest river, the Yangtze River Delta gives birth to 40% of China's GDP, and Beijing is currently racing to secure water resources for the Olympics by establishing a water supply route from the Yangtze River to the capital. The Yangtze River is facing an unprecedented crisis, however. In October 2004, the “Long March to Protect the Yangtze River”, a joint study mission organized by the Standing Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the China Development Research Institute, departed from the upstream city of Yibin in Sichuan Province and traveled through 21 cities to end in Shanghai, conducting pollution tests along the way. The results showed that “the ecology of the Yangtze River is facing an extreme crisis, and if it is not addressed there is a fear that the ecosystem will collapse within ten years.”

The proportion of forested watershed fed by the Yangtze River is rapidly decreasing and the amount of river slime is rising, thereby accelerating the deterioration of the river's ecology. Furthermore, the dry season is coming earlier, and even the Yangtze River is growing close to drying up. The quality of the water is growing extremely foul, and the drinking water for many cities on the coast has been affected. In addition, pollution in the form of solid waste-such as cow and sheep carcasses and household furniture-has grown horrendous, and in the reservoir at the Three Gorges Dam, the solid waste is said to be as deep as four meters, with deleterious effects on energy generation.

The Crisis in Agricultural Infrastructure

Excessive pumping is also a growing problem. Much of China's water-intensive grain and cotton production is extremely dependent on groundwater. Though China had record grain-production levels in 1998, grain production has declined in successive years, hastened by excessive pumping and various policies transforming agricultural-use land into factories, residences, and roads, as well as relocation policies designed to move fields to mountain plantations.

Changes are also being wrought in one of the world's leading breadbaskets, the three provinces in China's northeast known for their “black soil”. As a result of damage from soil erosion, this fertile black soil is deteriorating into “yellow earth” (less-fertile loess soil). These regions account for roughly 80% of China's corn production and 60% of China's soybean production. Clear-cutting in the name of agrarianism and other goals is also increasing, resulting in striation. Goats and sheep, which tear up roots when they graze, have also taken their toll on the area. All of these factors combined have resulted in this precious black soil contracting at a rate of about 1 cm per year. According to experts' warnings, “At the present pace there will be no more black soil left in 50 years.”

This problem is another factor that imposes a serious hindrance to the sustainability of China's high-growth economy.

The Advent of the “Recycling Economy Theory”

Building off of China's rapidly escalating environment problems, Chinese policy researchers and other experts are hammering out the concept of a “recycling economy”, an economy that will lead the way for sustainable development that is compatible with China's environmental and resources problems. This “recycling economy” is characterized by the cyclical use of material resources and energy efficiency, and includes systems for ecological engineering, ecological agriculture, and ecological consumption.

According to the Chinese Academy of Science's Sustainability Development Strategy Research Team, there are three fundamental principles behind the development of a recycling economy: